The year 2000--computer compliance : second report. Volume I, Report and proceedings of the Committee / Science and Technology Committee.

  • Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Select Committee on Science and Technology.
Date:
1998
Catalogue details

Licence: Open Government Licence

Credit: The year 2000--computer compliance : second report. Volume I, Report and proceedings of the Committee / Science and Technology Committee. Source: Wellcome Collection.

    14/48 (page 12)
    CHAPTER TWO: SCALE AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE PROBLEM 13. Although most of our witnesses agreed that the century date change could potentially force errors in almost any system, product or process that incorporates a date reference, there are various estimates of the number of systems that are likely to be affected.” Taskforce 2000 told us that “most computer systems (large and small, old and new) and almost countless ‘embedded’ microprocessor chips are potentially affected”.*? Several bodies have recently undertaken surveys to ascertain precisely how many systems and organisations will be affected. In 1997, PA Consulting found, in a comprehensive survey in the UK and Ireland, that only 3% of organisations felt that their systems would be unaffected by the century date change, with a further 6% not knowing whether their’s would be or not. The remaining 91% of respondents believed that the century date change either had or would have an impact on their organisation (see table 1). Table 1 Expected Impact of the Century Date Change on Organisations : finer lone, cute cua neetamels) elation Seni nnen vee ais sn ssiiqsyenstitmalien ocho | ehneeogenqiomider a sieieat Sl oad Source: Defusing the Millennium Time Bomb, page 18. 14. Taskforce 2000 told us that, left uncorrected, “80 per cent of computer systems of all kinds ... and something between 10 and 30 per cent of embedded systems will fail in one way or another”.** Similarly, Greenwich Mean Time, a company formed specifically to address issues arising from the Year 2000 problem in PCs, told us that the majority of the 20 million PCs that are estimated to be in use in the UK at present will experience some form of hardware or software disruption.” 15. While we can quantify the number of systems likely to be affected, such statistics provide no qualitative indication of the extent to which organisations are likely to be impacted. There is an enormous difference between the consequences of failures in minor systems, like a pocket calculator, and a failure in a system which performs business or safety-critical functions. Moreover, while organisations may be able to cope with the failure of one system without any serious repercussions, the outcome may be completely different if a number of systems, minor or otherwise, fail simultaneously. Consequently raw statistics give little indication of the nature or degree of risk that century date change related errors may pose either socially or economically. We attempt to address this issue below but, in doing so, are conscious that these assessments are based on the assumption that no corrective or preparatory measures had been taken. 2209. Ev.pp. 24 and 161. 23 Ev.p. 1. 70:6. SE v.p. 164.