Twentieth report : transport and the environment--developments since 1994 / Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution ; presented to Parliament by Command of Her Majesty, September 1997.

  • Great Britain. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution.
Date:
1997
Catalogue details

Licence: Open Government Licence

Credit: Twentieth report : transport and the environment--developments since 1994 / Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution ; presented to Parliament by Command of Her Majesty, September 1997. Source: Wellcome Collection.

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    over this period.”' For some pollutants emissions per freight tonne-mile (black smoke) or passenger- mile (nitrogen oxides) increased. In other cases the indicators showed reductions recently in emissions per tonne-mile or passenger-mile, although estimates of emissions are subject to large margins of error (see box 2D). Even where emissions per tonne-mile or passenger-mile have remained broadly constant or fallen, total emissions of the pollutants in question have shown large increases since 1970 because of the very large increase in the number of vehicles.” 1.22 Other suggested sustainability indicators were land take for roads, and car use/total passenger travel.” Since 1970 car travel per head of population has almost doubled, whereas travel on buses and coaches has dropped by a quarter and rail travel has remained broadly unchanged. Some other indicators pointed to some of the reasons for this growth and are discussed in later chapters (categories of journey, out-of-town retail floorspace) or later in this chapter (cost of personal transport). Trends in freight are also discussed below (1.30-1.31). 1.23 Another indicator is the total amount of traffic on the roads. Over the four years 1989 to 1993 the total amount of traffic hardly changed. It was uncertain in 1994 whether this was the result of the economic recession or reflected in part some modification in long-term trends. Since 1993 growth has resumed. The annual increase of over 2% between 1993 and 1995 was larger than the average annual increase over the last 20 years. 1.24 Meanwhile use of public transport has stagnated or fallen. Rail travel remained roughly constant between 1993 and 1995, at a level similar to that in the mid-1970s.” Travel by bus and coach, which has fallen by 45% since 1960, remained broadly constant between 1993 and 1995, but temporary plateaux have also occurred in the past. 1.25 Walking and cycling have also declined. Between 1989-91 and 1993-95 the average distance walked by a person in a year fell by 16%, and the average distance cycled fell by 11%.” 1.26 DOT has not produced any new forecasts for road traffic since 1989. Rolled forward, the 1989 forecast implies an overall increase in traffic of between 55% and 87% from 1995 to 2025.’ The low forecast reflects past levels of economic performance in the UK and assumes the market price of fuel will increase in real terms at an average annual rate of 0.85%.°* We consider this forecast has a higher probability than the high forecast. The growth in traffic since 1950 has been predominantly a growth in car traffic, and that is projected to continue; figure 1-I shows the growth in movements of light and heavy vehicles separately and the re-based high and low forecasts for each component up to 2025. The implications of such forecasts for emissions of pollutants in future are discussed in chapter 2 of this report. Figure 1-l Road traffic growth with low and high forecasts 800 700 600 500 billion vehicle- 400 kilometres/ year 300 200 100 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 cars, motorcycles and taxis ——.-— goods vehicles and buses