Foresight in science : an experiment in the field of cardiovascular research : project overview / J. Anderson and N. Williams.

  • Anderson, Joe.
Date:
1995
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Licence: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

Credit: Foresight in science : an experiment in the field of cardiovascular research : project overview / J. Anderson and N. Williams. Source: Wellcome Collection.

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    Recommendations for reforming the support infrastructure Synthesis of findings and assessment of priorities There was little support from the majority of the research community for the creation of a national research institute for cardivascular science. There was, instead, strong support for the development of smaller multidisciplinary centres, or funded networks as the most effective means of strengthening the field. The workshop brought together the three main funding bodies supporting cardiovascular research along with leading representatives of the relevant scientific and research user communities. Using a combination of scenario analysis, guided visualization, real-time 'Delphi' techniques and colour voting, participants worked with data produced in the foresight project to arrive at a set of priorities. These fell into two categories: Scientific priorities. Scientific priorities followed closely those emerging from the postal survey of scientists - viz. studies of: • the vascular endothelium, • the molecular genetics of disease risk, and • the mechanisms of atherogenesis. Infrastructure priorities. The top priorities for strengthening cardiovascular research against a range of possible future scenarios were to: • establish a small number of multidisciplinary groups, or a funded research network; • provide more long-term funding for research projects; • protect curiosity-driven ('blue skies') research. Overall, the project met its immediate aims of producing an information base on which priorities for the field of cardiovascular research could be established. More generally, lessons were learned which may be of value to future priority-setting exercises using foresight techniques in other fields of scientific research. Lessons learned for developing future foresight studies A clear finding was that the process of analysis, consultation and wide debate on priorities can provide strong, coherent signals to policy makers on options for new initiatives that are likely to strengthen their field against a number of possible futures. The foresight project enabled a large number of researchers, users and policy-makers to learn through exploration and analysis, and this process was at least as important as the list of options that were the tangible output of the project. Furthermore, because the process was fact-driven, and consultation methods open, a sense of ownership of the project was encouraged among those involved.