[Report 1903] / Medical Officer of Health, St Helens County Borough.

  • St. Helens (Merseyside, England). County Borough Council.
Date:
1903
Catalogue details

Licence: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

Credit: [Report 1903] / Medical Officer of Health, St Helens County Borough. Source: Wellcome Collection.

    8/128 (page 8)
    POPULATION. The population of the Borough of St. Helens was found at the census of April 1901 to be 84,410, showing an increase for the ten years 1891-1901 of 12,043. In estimating the population at the middle of the year (June 30th) 1903 the usual and, on the whole, the most reliable method is that adopted by the Registrar-General. This method assumes that the same ratio of increase has been maintained since 1901, as took place during the intercensal period 1891-1901. Though the last census returns shoived that this method was liable to very consider¬ able errors in certain towns, it still remains the only recognised method for estimating the progress of populations. With a quinquenial census instead of a decennial one, this method would gain largely in accuracy, and it is to be hoped that the time is not far distant when a Bill will be introduced, establishing a census every five years. The figures therefore for estimating the population in the middle of 1903 are as follows Population, 1891 ... Population, 1901 ... Population, 1903 (estimated) 72,367 (April) 84,410 (April) 87,385 (June) It is on this latter figure that the various rates of the Borough are based. The results obtained by the Registrar-General’s method may be checked with fair accuracy in the following way :—It is an ascertained fact that the birth-rate in any district remains fairly constant, so long as no new conditions of labour, etc., are introduced. The average birth-rate of the last ten years is therefore found, and from the known number of births which have occurred in the year for which the estimated population is desired, the population is calculated which would give the said number of births at the above mentioned birth-rate. Thus the mean annual birth-rate in St. Helens for the years 1893-1902 is 37*64 per 1,000 of the population, vThilst the number of births registered during 1903 was 3,421. This number at the above rate (37*64) would give a population of 90,914. In the present instance, however, there is reason to believe that the number of births in 1903 was in excess of the average of the past ten years. On the whole the figure obtained by the Registrar-General’s method is preferable and as before stated the one adopted in this report in the calculation of the various rates.